Archive for category: Artigo

AESE insight #102

[av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='Boas intenções das empresas portuguesas, falta acelerar a prática ' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #102 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/3.png' attachment='1401962' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='post,6760' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='Bruno Proença' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Director for Sustainability and ESG at JLM&A | Senior Teaching Fellow at AESE Business School [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_three_fifth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] O BEI divulgou um inquérito a empresas europeias e norte-americanas, com dados para Portugal. Os resultados nacionais extremam as conclusões globais: as empresas já não conseguem negar os impactos das alterações climáticas no seu negócio, mas as suas ações são ainda insuficientes e, em muitos casos, hesitantes.
O tema da Sustentabilidade é um organismo vivo. Não nasceu ontem. O estudo com profundidade, patrocinado pelas Nações Unidas, que levou ao nascimento do conceito de “desenvolvimento sustentável” vem dos anos oitenta do século passado. E surge já na sequência do relatório “Os limites ao crescimento”, publicado pelo Clube de Roma em meados dos anos setenta do século XX.
A grande mudança, sobretudo desde o fim da década passada, é que a temática da Sustentabilidade democratizou-se. Na sequência das COP, cimeiras sobre as alterações climáticas organizadas pelas Nações Unidas, o tópico da sustentabilidade e do aquecimento global entrou definitivamente na agenda dos vários stakeholders. Já não é somente um assunto das políticas públicas dos governos, ao invés é relevante para todos, incluindo as empresas. É, neste contexto, que surge a terminologia ESG – a Sustentabilidade deve ser vista em três pilares: ambiente, social e governance. No fundo, o ESG, hoje tão contestado, é uma tentativa de traduzir os Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS) para uma “linguagem” mais empresarial, mais própria de gestores e investidores.
Mais relevante do que as terminologias ou os acrónimos da moda, é o contributo das empresas para a Sustentabilidade. Neste aspeto, não devem residir dúvidas. Os objetivos fixados para a área ambiental, como a neutralidade carbónica em 2050, para a área social e de governance são tão ambiciosos e requerem alterações tão profundas, que todos temos de contribuir. O setor privado não pode ficar de fora, agarrado à velha máxima de Milton Friedman de que o fim último das empresas é apenas remunerar os acionistas.
Um estudo do Banco Europeu de Investimento (BEI), “EIB Investment survey 2023”, divulgado na semana passada, contém um conjunto de dados muito reveladores da forma como as empresas estão a gerir os impactos das alterações climáticas. O estudo resulta de um inquérito a 13.000 empresas de países membros da União Europeia e igualmente dos Estados Unidos, que foi realizado já este ano.
Assim, 64% das empresas reconhecem que a sua atividade já é afetada pelos riscos associados às alterações climáticas, mas apenas cerca de metade (36%) afirmam que adotaram medidas para mitigar este risco, sendo que 13% recorreram a seguros.
E em que áreas têm as empresas implementado medidas? Aqui não há surpresas. Cerca de 90% das organizações inquiridas responderam que já adotaram medidas para reduzirem as emissões de gases com efeitos de estufa, 59% medidas para aumentar a eficiência energética e 67% ações para a gestão de resíduos e potenciar a reciclagem. Ou seja, o estudo do BEI confirma que as empresas começam pelas ações mais fáceis.
O mais difícil é transformar o modelo de negócio. Neste aspeto, somente 32% das empresas inquiridas afirmam estar a investir em novos produtos e tecnologias mais “verdes”. E pior, quando questionados como encaram as alterações nas regulamentações e a fixação de novos standards, apenas 29% dos inquiridos respondem que é uma oportunidade, contra 33% que falam num risco para o seu negócio.
Ainda assim, o estudo deixa uma nota positiva: 56% das empresas pretende continuar a investir nestas áreas nos próximos três anos.
Portugal segue a tendência
O estudo do BEI tem também dados para as empresas portuguesas, que seguem a tendência europeia e norte-americana. As organizações nacionais são mesmo as segundas, depois de Espanha, a reconhecerem que os eventos climáticos têm impacto na sua atividade – 79%, o que fica acima da média. A fotografia é menos brilhante quando as respostas reportam a ações concretas. Somente cerca de 50% das empresas portugueses afirmam terem planos de investimento para mitigarem os impactos das alterações climáticas. E quando falamos em ações na área energética – medidas para melhorar a eficiência e auditorias nos últimos três anos –, Portugal cai para a segunda metade da tabela entre os países participantes no inquérito do BEI.
Os valores para Portugal extremam as conclusões globais: as empresas já não conseguem negar os impactos da agenda da Sustentabilidade no seu negócio, mas as suas ações são ainda insuficientes e, em muitos casos, hesitantes. Olhando para o copo meio cheio, vários estudos de diversas organizações confirmam que o tema está na agenda dos gestores, investidores e empresários. Observando a parte meia vazia, muitos ainda estão a esperar para ver, esquecendo que hoje já é mais caro não fazer nada do que atuar.
A mudança para as empresas será inevitável, nomeadamente por pressão de diversos stakeholders: o poder político aprovou nova legislação e regulamentações; o sistema financeiro exigirá cada vez mais informação não financeira às empresas para avaliar o seu risco; e os consumidores são mais exigentes. (Vamos tratar cada uma destas fontes de pressão para as empresas nas próximas semanas.) O contexto de negócio está já a mudar. Provavelmente, é melhor atuar mais cedo do que tarde.

Artigo publicado no Negócios [/av_textblock] [/av_three_fifth][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' 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AESE insight #101

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av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Maria de Fátima Carioca Professora de Fator Humano na Organização e Dean da AESE Business School [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/101-AESE-insight-1080x1080-ET.png' attachment='1151672' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-101-2/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='The Fed’s balancing act' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Eduard Talamàs Assistant Professor of Economics, IESE Business School [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/101-AESE-insight-1080x1080-GSA.png' attachment='1151694' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-101-3/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='O poder da organização na Agricultura' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Gonçalo Santos Andrade Presidente da Portugal Fresh e Diretor do Programa GAIN – Direção de Empresas da Cadeia Agroalimentar da AESE Business School [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='As recomendações' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_fourth first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/5.png' attachment='1151837' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://hbr.org/2020/10/storytelling-can-make-or-break-your-leadership' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Storytelling Can Make or Break Your Leadership' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Harvard Business Review [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6.png' attachment='1151888' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://hbr.org/2003/06/storytelling-that-moves-people' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Storytelling That Moves People' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Harvard Business Review [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7.png' attachment='1151917' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.toaststudio.com/en/6-types-of-stories-for-powerful-brand-storytelling/' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='6 types of stories for powerful brand storytelling' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Toast Studio [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/101-AESE-insight-1080x1080-1.png' attachment='1152098' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Tip of the week' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section]

AESE insight #101

[av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='The Fed’s balancing act' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #101 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/101-AESE-insight-1080x1080-ET.png' attachment='1151672' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.iese.edu/faculty-research/faculty/eduard-talamas/' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Eduard Talamàs' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Assistant Professor of Economics, IESE Business School [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_three_fifth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] The U.S. must tread carefully to avoid losing its most important asset: credibility.
This week, the policymaking body of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) met in Washington, D.C., to discuss whether to raise one of the most important and closely watched prices in the world: the federal funds rate. (This is the interest rate at which U.S. commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight, and it affects the cost of borrowing worldwide.) Ultimately, the Fed decided to keep its target interest rate at around 5.5% — a 22-year high.
The recent sharp increases in the federal funds rate (it was essentially zero just 18 months ago) are wreaking havoc around the world. Indeed, with the global debt pile north of $300 trillion, there is plenty of pain to go around. For example, sub-Saharan Africa is suffering what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called a “big funding squeeze,” with almost half of the region’s countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, and the value of most currencies in the region plummeting.
No wonder everyone is asking how much higher interest rates will go, and whether they will come back down anytime soon. In this article, I will not answer this question (I’m sorry, unfortunately no one really knows the answer). Instead, I will shed light on the challenges involved by describing two balancing acts being played by the Fed at the moment.
The first balancing act is the one that Fed Chair Jerome (Jay) Powell usually emphasizes in press conferences: The interest rate that really matters for economic activity is the expected real interest rate; that is, the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. In normal times, when inflation is relatively stable, changes in nominal interest rates translate roughly one-to-one with changes in the real interest rate. But these are not normal times.
At the moment, inflation seems to be coming down, so it might be the case that real interest rates are increasing even if the nominal interest rate is staying put. If so, we might be heading for a cooling of the economy and disinflation. It might even turn out that the Fed has been too hawkish (in the sense that it has hiked too much and/or too fast) and we end up landing hard. Alternatively, it might be that inflation is not significantly coming down after all, so that the real interest rate is not going up either. If so, the Fed might have been too dovish (the opposite of hawkish), and we might be heading for more activity and a reacceleration of inflation. A balancing act indeed.
The second balancing act is, I think, more fundamental, and is rarely acknowledged in press conferences, so it is the one that I am going to focus on in the rest of this article.
It’s mostly fiscal
There is a joke among economists that the International Monetary Fund is referred to as IMF as a reminder that, when an economy requires IMF assistance, more often than not "It’s Mostly Fiscal." Accordingly, the balancing act that I highlight is mostly fiscal.
The U.S. federal government has run fiscal deficits for 46 out of the last 50 years. Public debt is around 120% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The current fiscal deficit is north of 5% of GDP, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the fiscal deficit will remain at these levels for the foreseeable future (its projections go until 2033). Whether this situation is sustainable depends, of course, on the price that the U.S. government has to pay to service its debt. This depends, in turn, on investors’ expected returns from buying U.S. government bonds. Here, the credibility of U.S. institutions plays a critical role. In particular, there are two factors that have greatly contributed to U.S. fiscal sustainability in recent decades: the Fed’s credibility and the U.S. Treasury’s credibility.
Thus, many investors largely believe the Fed when it says that it will maintain price stability in the U.S., so they are not too worried about the value of the dollar changing dramatically, and hence they do not require significant risk premia to lend dollars. Likewise, many investors largely believe the Treasury when it promises that it will honor its debts, so they do not require significant risk premia to lend to the U.S. government.
The dovish risk: losing the Fed’s credibility
If the Fed is too dovish, and it allows inflation expectations to drift away from its 2% target, it can damage its most valuable asset: credibility.
For example, suppose that everyone comes to understand that 4% is the new 2%, so that the Fed will allow inflation to stay around 4% for some time. This is a slippery slope: If we shift from 2% to 4% now, what ensures that we won’t shift from 4% to 8% next time around?
These kinds of worries might contribute to higher economic uncertainty for everyone, which is bad enough, but also to higher interest rate risk premia for the U.S. government.
The hawkish risk: losing the Treasury’s credibility
If the Fed is too hawkish, it can damage the Treasury’s most valuable asset: credibility.
For example, suppose that, in order to keep inflation at 2%, the Fed has to keep interest rates at a level at which public debt grows faster than GDP. In this case, some people might start to wonder whether debt defaults are on the horizon. These kinds of worries might lead investors to demand higher risk premia when lending to the U.S. government.
Do you recognize the vicious circle here? These higher risk premia might lead to more worries about debt sustainability, and higher risk premia, and more worries, and so on. This is the infamous vicious circle that has taken so many governments down before.
The Fed’s balancing act
The Fed, as well as many other central banks around the world, is facing a complex balancing act.
First, the current uncertain trajectory of inflation implies that the Fed does not really have a good grip on the real interest rate. As a result, it is balancing the risk of raising the federal funds rate too fast, which would bring the economy down hard, with the risk of raising the federal funds rate too slowly, which would let inflation persist or even reaccelerate.
At the same time, and more fundamentally, the Fed is balancing — and will be balancing for the foreseeable future — its own credibility with the Treasury’s. This is a difficult balancing act because credibility is hard to earn but easy to lose. It is also a high-stakes balancing act because, given the high levels of public debt and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits, damaging the credibility of either institution could represent a serious blow to the stability of the U.S. economy in general and the sustainability of U.S. public finances in particular.
For the sake of the global economy, let’s hope that the Fed manages to balance these acts successfully.

Published in IESE insight [/av_textblock] [/av_three_fifth][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' 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padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [/av_one_third][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='As recomendações' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #100 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_fourth first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/5.png' attachment='1151837' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://hbr.org/2020/10/storytelling-can-make-or-break-your-leadership' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Storytelling Can Make or Break Your Leadership' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Harvard Business Review [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/6.png' attachment='1151888' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://hbr.org/2003/06/storytelling-that-moves-people' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Storytelling That Moves People' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Harvard Business Review [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/7.png' attachment='1151917' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.toaststudio.com/en/6-types-of-stories-for-powerful-brand-storytelling/' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='6 types of stories for powerful brand storytelling' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Toast Studio [/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_one_fourth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/101-AESE-insight-1080x1080-1.png' attachment='1152098' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Tip of the week' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_heading] [/av_one_fourth][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section]

AESE insight #100

[av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='Os artigos' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #100 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/1-1.png' attachment='713468' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [/av_one_third][av_three_fifth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Celebramos a 100ª Edição do AESE Insight!
Ao longo destes 3 anos, os professores da AESE partilharam ideias e reflexões, modelos teóricos e casos práticos. A curiosidade e a pesquisa exigente dos nossos professores revelaram novos caminhos para preparar líderes. Estou certa de que o resultado é um impacto acrescido nas pessoas, nas empresas e na sociedade.
O conhecimento desempenha um papel muito importante na formação de executivos. Na AESE trata-se de um conhecimento profundamente enraizado na realidade empresarial, sempre numa perspetiva de Direção e Liderança, uma visão relevante, rigorosa e holística das questões e desafios do mundo empresarial e da sociedade.
É com esta missão que o AESE Insight se afirma como um espaço de partilha de conhecimento e sabedoria, um motor de inspiração e inovação.
Um brinde aos autores, professores da AESE e de outras escolas associadas e Alumni!
Um brinde à equipa editorial!
E venham mais 100! [/av_textblock] [/av_three_fifth][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2.png' attachment='713382' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-100/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Aqualisa Quartz- Simply a better shower' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Ramiro Martins Professor e Responsável Académico da Área de Política Comercial e Marketing [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/3.png' attachment='713386' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-100-2/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='Diz-me como resolves um caso, dir-te-ei quem és!' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Pedro Alvito Professor da Área Académica de Política de Empresa [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/4-1.png' attachment='713390' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-100-3/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='Gestão da mudança - valores e liderança, um binómio indissociável' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Cátia Sá Guerreiro Professora da Área Académica de Fator Humano na Organização e Ética [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/5-1.png' attachment='713395' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,http://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-100-4/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='Caso “Hospital Auream Salutem”' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Nuno Biga Professor da Área Académica Operações, Tecnologia e Inovação [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/6-1.png' attachment='713400' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='manually,https://www.aese.pt/aese-insight-100-5/' target='' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading tag='h3' padding='10' heading='Bidding for Hertz: Leveraged buyout' color='' style='blockquote modern-quote' custom_font='' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' custom_class='' admin_preview_bg='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size=''] Diogo Ribeiro Santos Professor da Área Académica Economia, Finanças, Controlo e Contabilidade [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_one_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [/av_one_third][av_hr class='default' height='50' shadow='no-shadow' position='center' custom_border='av-border-thin' custom_width='50px' custom_border_color='' custom_margin_top='30px' custom_margin_bottom='30px' icon_select='yes' custom_icon_color='' icon='ue808' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide=''] [/av_section]

AESE insight #100

[av_layerslider id='3938'] [av_layerslider id='3939'] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='Diz-me como resolves um caso, dir-te-ei quem és!' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #100 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/3.png' attachment='713386' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='post,5462' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Pedro Alvito' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Professor da Área Académica de Política de Empresa [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_three_fifth min_height='' vertical_alignment='av-align-top' space='' margin='0px' margin_sync='true' padding='0px' padding_sync='true' border='5' border_color='' radius='0px' radius_sync='true' background_color='' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Um caso é sempre um caso, com ideias corretas e erradas, com conceitos a seguir e outros a não seguir, mas sempre com lições a aprender seja pela positiva seja pela negativa.
Pediram-me para escrever sobre o caso que mais gosto de dar nas aulas de Política de Empresa. Escolhi um caso diferente. Chama-se “Chocolataria Germain”, conhecem? Provavelmente não, porque simplesmente não existe nenhuma chocolataria com esse nome… e então? O caso com apenas duas páginas conta a história de uma pequena chocolataria que passa de geração em geração, cheia de prestígio local, com um produto baseado numa receita que passou de geração em geração e em que o dono vive desafogadamente em termos financeiros, mas “afogadamente” em termos de trabalho e dedicação ao negócio. Provavelmente com esta descrição já lembra tantos casos conhecidos de empresas que são exatamente assim. Só que este dono decide pedir ajuda e arranjar um sócio. Alguém com capacidade financeira, mas sobretudo capacidade de gestão que pudesse levar este negócio a um patamar superior. E o caso termina aqui!
Quando comecei a dar aulas baseando-me no método do caso chamou-me a atenção o facto de praticamente a totalidade dos casos estarem “resolvidos” em termos históricos e o objetivo ser o de analisar a envolvente avaliando, com base na nossa experiência pessoal e profissional, as decisões tomadas, criticando ou elogiando as mesmas, definindo caminhos alternativos que, na discussão que é promovida e pela experiência que cada um partilha, são naturalmente diferentes. É por isso um método riquíssimo pois permite colocar em discussão práticas, teorias e experiências que sendo pessoais são forçosamente diferentes e assim se abrem novos caminhos, novos horizontes e novas aprendizagens.
Achei que faltava nestas aulas um pouco de construção pessoal como alternativa à análise do que outros fizeram na situação x ou y. Escrevi então este caso para funcionar ao contrário. O aluno é o novo sócio que o Pierre Germain procura para dar alma ao seu negócio. É uma espécie de faça você mesmo. O aluno tem de “escrever” o caso e construir um futuro para essa empresa: que estratégia seguir e como desenvolver essa estratégia em termos financeiros, comerciais, produção, recursos humanos, marketing, etc. etc.
Torna-se assim um caso construído por grupos de alunos que os obriga a pensar não numa ótica de consultor que está de fora a dar opiniões, mas como alguém que vai pôr a mão na massa. Apresentadas e discutidas as diversas propostas num caso que obviamente não tem solução, faço sempre uma pergunta muito prática: Se estivessem nesta situação quais eram as questões que vos tiravam o sono? Política de empresa é isto na mais pura das suas essências. As soluções apresentadas pelos grupos são sempre fantásticas (até presenteiam muitas vezes os colegas com “amostras” de chocolate) mas, na vida real, muitas das estratégias não falham por má definição da mesma, mas simplesmente porque não se avaliam as reais dificuldades. Todos somos bons treinadores de bancada, com soluções para tudo, principalmente para analisar o trabalho dos outros, mas é no desafio do fazer que se conhece a qualidade do verdadeiro gestor. A forma como se resolve um caso diz muito da pessoa que o resolve. Por isso, este é o meu caso preferido. 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