AESE insight #52
[av_layerslider id='2084'] [av_layerslider id='2085'] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='95px' padding='no-padding' shadow='no-border-styling' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='' bottom_border_style='' scroll_down='aviaTBscroll_down' custom_arrow_bg='#f37421' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='#ffffff' src='' attachment='' attachment_size='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'][/av_section] [av_one_full first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_heading heading='O OE 2022 e o fundo soberano negativo' tag='h1' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='48' subheading_active='subheading_above' subheading_size='12' padding='15' color='custom-color-heading' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] AESE insight #52 > Thinking ahead [/av_heading] [/av_one_full] [av_section min_height='' min_height_px='500px' padding='default' shadow='no-shadow' bottom_border='no-border-styling' bottom_border_diagonal_color='#333333' bottom_border_diagonal_direction='scroll' bottom_border_style='scroll' scroll_down='' custom_arrow_bg='' id='' color='main_color' custom_bg='' src='' attach='scroll' position='top left' repeat='no-repeat' video='' video_ratio='16:9' video_mobile_disabled='' overlay_enable='' overlay_opacity='0.5' overlay_color='' overlay_pattern='' overlay_custom_pattern='' av-desktop-hide='' av-medium-hide='' av-small-hide='' av-mini-hide='' av_element_hidden_in_editor='0'] [av_one_third first min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_image src='https://www.aese.pt/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/AESEinsight_DiogoCarvalho.jpg' attachment='84760' attachment_size='full' align='center' styling='' hover='' link='post,28476' target='_blank' caption='' font_size='' appearance='' overlay_opacity='0.4' overlay_color='#000000' overlay_text_color='#ffffff' animation='no-animation' admin_preview_bg=''][/av_image] [av_heading heading='Diogo Ribeiro Santos' tag='h3' style='blockquote modern-quote' size='' subheading_active='subheading_below' subheading_size='15' padding='10' color='' custom_font='' av-medium-font-size-title='' av-small-font-size-title='' av-mini-font-size-title='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] Professor de Finanças [/av_heading] [/av_one_third][av_two_third min_height='' vertical_alignment='' space='' custom_margin='' margin='0px' padding='0px' border='' border_color='' radius='0px' background_color='' src='' background_position='top left' background_repeat='no-repeat' animation='' mobile_breaking='' mobile_display=''] [av_textblock size='' font_color='' color='' av-medium-font-size='' av-small-font-size='' av-mini-font-size='' admin_preview_bg=''] O fundo soberano negativo português é obviamente a dívida pública, que deve representar 122,8% do PIB, no final 2022, segundo a Proposta de Orçamento do Estado para 2022 (POE 2022). A comparação é tentadora: enquanto um fundo soberano (positivo) é uma reserva de riqueza que reforça a soberania, a dívida é um direito de terceiros à nossa riqueza futura. Ao invés de uma poupança acumulada, que permita amortecer as crises como a da pandemia ou assegurar a sustentabilidade da Segurança Social, estamos dependentes dos mercados financeiros e, no curto prazo, do Banco Central Europeu (BCE).O nosso fundo soberano negativo é um monstro que se alimenta de défices. Desde 1995, dotámos este fundo com 177 mil milhões de euros (M€) de défices acumulados. A POE 2022 contribui com um défice de 7.134 M€ (em contabilidade nacional). Como o Estado não dispõe de poupanças, a diferença entre receitas e despesas tem de ser financiada por dívida. Sendo o orçamento cronicamente deficitário, nunca existe margem para reduzir a dívida. Os juros crescem, prevendo-se que representem 2,3% do PIB em 2022 (5.128 M€).
Nada obsta a que o Estado se endivide. Se a dívida financiar apenas projetos com valor atual líquido positivo, isto é, que retornem o capital investido acrescido de uma rendibilidade pelo menos equivalente à taxa de juro, será sempre possível reembolsar a dívida com juros. Se for possível manter uma taxa de crescimento do PIB igual à taxa de juro, poderá até refinanciar-se a dívida perpetuamente, e manter um rácio constante da dívida sobre o PIB.
No caso português, de 1995 para 2020, o valor do PIB nominal praticamente duplicou, enquanto o saldo da dívida quintuplicou (273,8 mil M€, em 2021). Os riscos são óbvios. Se o BCE restringir ou suspender os programas de compra de ativos, o Estado ficará inteiramente dependente dos mercados financeiros para se financiar. É natural que qualquer potencial credor, antes de emprestar mais dinheiro, se questione sobre a capacidade de reembolsar o saldo existente. Outro risco é a subida das taxas de juro da dívida a 10 anos para 3 ou 4% – por força do aumento da inflação e do subsequente aumento das taxas diretoras dos bancos centrais. Considerando que o custo médio da dívida do Estado é de 2,2%, os juros anuais praticamente duplicariam.
A POE 2022 adequa-se a um Portugal com um fundo soberano. Retirando o efeito do PRR, das medidas “one-off” e de emergência, a despesa primária prevista para 2022 situar-se-á 3,4 p.p. do PIB acima do valor pré-pandemia. Deste acréscimo, 2 p.p. do PIB correspondem a despesa corrente primária, nomeadamente despesas com pessoal e prestações sociais. Num momento em que o rácio da dívida sobre o PIB é superior ao dobro do permitido, cabe perguntar qual será o melhor investimento: aproveitar a folga orçamental para reduzir a dívida pública, desipotecando a nossa soberania, ou aumentar a despesa e torná-la mais rígida, diminuindo a nossa resiliência financeira? 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